Fifth National Climate Assessment

The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5), currently in development, will analyze the impacts of global change in the United States.

The development of NCA5 is overseen by a Federal Steering Committee appointed by the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (SGCR) and comprising representatives from USGCRP agencies. NOAA, as the administrative agency for NCA5, is responsible for establishing procedures for the report, releasing Federal Register Notices, and certifying the report meets Information Quality Act and Evidence Act standards. 

The process is designed to be transparent and inclusive, offering multiple opportunities for public participation. As in previous assessments, NCA5 will undergo an extensive, multi-phase process of internal and external review from federal agency experts, the general public, and external peer review by a panel of experts established by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. This approach is designed to result in a report that is authoritative, timely, relevant, and policy neutral; valued by authors and users; accessible to the widest possible audience; and fully compliant with the GCRA and other applicable laws and policies.

NCA5 will assess current and future risks posed by climate change to each of NCA’s 10 regions, illustrated below.

Overview/Summary Findings

Earth System

• Climate Trends
• Earth Systems Processes

National Topics

• Water
• Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand
• Land Cover and Land-Use Change
• Forests
• Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity
• Coastal Effects
• Oceans and Marine Resources
• Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities
• Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities 
• Transportation 
• Air Quality 
• Human Health 
• Tribes and Indigenous Peoples
• Climate Effects on U.S. International Interests 
• Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems 
• Economics* 
• Human Social Systems* 

Regions

• Northeast
• Southeast 
• U.S. Caribbean 
• Midwest 
• Northern Great Plains 
• Southern Great Plains 
• Northwest 
• Southwest 
• Alaska 
• Hawai'i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands 

Response 

• Adaptation 
• Mitigation 

Appendices

• Process 
• Information Quality 
• Scenarios and Datasets
• Indicators*

*New chapters

NCA5 Participant Roles and Responsibilities

• A Federal Steering Committee is responsible for the development, production, and content of the report as well as high-level scoping to ensure coherence, relevance, and responsiveness to the Global Change Research Act and the USGCRP Strategic Plan. The Federal Steering Committee (with concurrence from the SGCR) selects Federal Coordinating Lead Authors, Chapter Leads, and Review Editors based on a number of criteria, including scientific expertise and experience with scientific assessments.
• Federal Coordinating Lead Authors and Agency Chapter Leads work across chapters to ensure consistency throughout the report and adherence to development guidance. Coordinating Lead Authors are also the points of contact to the Chapter Leads.
• Chapter Leads are federal or non-federal experts selected from a pool generated in part by a public nominations process. In consultation with Federal Coordinating Lead Authors, Chapter Leads organize, direct, and lead authorship of individual chapters. Chapter Author teams are established by the Chapter Leads with suggestions from the Federal Coordinating Lead Authors and the Federal Steering Committee. Chapters are submitted to the corresponding Federal Coordinating Lead Author, and ultimately transmitted to the Federal Steering Committee as the individual input of the Chapter Leads.
• Chapter Authors are selected by the Chapter Leads in consultation with the Federal Coordinating Lead Author and Federal Steering Committee, based in part on nominations via the public call. They are responsible for developing chapter content. Chapter author teams work with Chapter Leads to develop draft chapters and edit those materials in response to comments received during the multiple rounds of review.
• Technical Contributors provide limited, requested inputs into chapter development. They are selected on an as-needed basis, for specific needs identified by the author team. Technical Contributors may be selected from the pool of publicly nominated authors.
• Review Editors are selected by the Federal Steering Committee from a pool of experts, including those generated through a public nomination process. Their role is to ensure that authors respond adequately, and provide sufficient justification for their responses to all comments received during the public and National Academies review periods.
• The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) provides an expert, external panel to review the public draft of NCA5. In addition, NASEM maintains a standing committee to provide advice to USGCRP. That committee is updated regularly with publicly available information regarding the status and plans for NCA5.

Earth System Processes

• Chapter Lead: L. Ruby Leung, Battelle Fellow, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Adam J. Terando, Research Ecologist, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Lori M Bruhwiler, Physical Scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Global Monitoring Laboratory; Renu Joseph, Program Manager, Department of Energy (DOE); George Tselioudis, Research Physical Scientist, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Climate Trends

• Chapter Lead: Kate Marvel, Research Scientist, Columbia University and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Wenying Su, Senior Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Roberto A. Delgado, Jr., Program Director, National Science Foundation (NSF); Russell S. Vose, Chief, Climate Analysis and Synthesis Branch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information

Water

• Chapter Lead: Elizabeth Payton, Water Resources Specialist, Western Water Assessment, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Ariane O. Pinson, Climate Science Specialist, Albuquerque District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Energy

• Chapter Lead: Craig D. Zamuda, Senior Policy Advisor, Department of Energy (DOE)

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Craig D. Zamuda, Senior Policy Advisor, DOE

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Land Cover and Land Use Change

• Chapter Lead: Peter Thornton, Section Head, Earth Systems Science Section, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Bradley C. Reed, Program Coordinator, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); George Z. Xian, USGS

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Forests

• Chapter Lead: Grant M. Domke, Research Forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Christopher J. Fettig, Research Entomologist, USDA Forest Service

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Anne S. Marsh, National Program Lead, Bioclimatology and Climate Change Research, USDA Forest Service

Ecosystems

• Chapter Lead: Pamela McElwee, Professor, Rutgers University

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Shawn L. Carter, Senior Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Climate Adaptation Science Center

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Kimberly J. W. Hyde, Operations Research Analyst, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Northeast Fisheries Science Center; Jordan M. West, Senior Ecologist, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Coastal Effects

• Chapter Lead: Christine May, Principal, Silvestrum Climate Associates

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Mark Osler, Senior Advisor for Coastal Inundation and Resilience, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Hilary F Stockdon, Research Oceanographer, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

Oceans

• Chapter Lead: Katherine E. Mills, Research Scientist, Gulf of Maine Research Institute

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Emily B. Osborne, Research Scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Roger B. Griffis, Climate Change Coordinator, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service

Agriculture and Rural Communities

• Chapter Lead: Carl H. Bolster, Research Hydrologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Robert B. Mitchell, Research Agronomist, Research Leader, Location Coordinator, USDA-Agricultural Research Service

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Alan J. Franzluebbers, Research Ecologist, USDA; Andrew Kitts, Economist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Marine Fisheries Service

Built Environment

• Chapter Lead: Eric K. Chu, Assistant Professor, University of California, Davis

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Meridith M. Fry, Environmental Engineer, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Transportation

• Chapter Lead: Cris B. Liban, Chief Sustainability Officer, Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Robert Kafalenos, Environmental Protection Specialist, Department of Transportation (DOT)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Air Quality

• Chapter Lead: J. Jason West, Professor, Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Christopher G. Nolte, Physical Scientist, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Human Health

• Chapter Lead: Mary H. Hayden, Research Professor, University of Colorado

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Paul J. Schramm, Climate Science Team Lead, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Tribes and Indigenous Peoples

• Chapter Lead: Kyle Whyte, Professor, University of Michigan

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Rachael M. Novak, Climate Science Coordinator/Acting Coordinator, Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), Tribal Climate Resilience Program

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

International

• Chapter Lead: Molly E. Hellmuth, International Climate Resilience Lead, ICF

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Alice Alpert, Foreign Affairs Officer, Department of State (DOS)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Roger S. Pulwarty, Senior Scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Complex Systems

• Chapter Lead: Katharine J. Mach, Associate Professor, University of Miami

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Robert W. Vallario, Program Manager, MultiSector Dynamics in Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, Office of Science, Department of Energy (DOE)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Economics

• Chapter Lead: Solomon Hsiang, Professor, University of California, Berkeley

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Jeremy Martinich, Acting Chief, Climate Science and Impacts Branch, Climate Change Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Monica Grasso, Chief Economic Advisor, NOAA; Rudy M. Schuster, Branch Chief/Social Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

Human Social Systems

• Chapter Lead: Elizabeth Marino, Associate Professor of Anthropology and Sustainability, Oregon State University, Cascades

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Keely B. Maxwell, General Anthropologist, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Emily Eisenhauer, Social Scientist Post-Doctoral Researcher, EPA; Ariela Zycherman, Social Scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Northeast

• Chapter Lead: Jessica C. Whitehead, Joan P. Brock Endowed Executive Director, Institute for Coastal Adaptation and Resilience, Old Dominion University

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Ellen L. Mecray, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Climate Services Director- Eastern Region

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Southeast

• Chapter Lead: Jeremy S. Hoffman, Chief Scientist, Science Museum of Virginia

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Steven McNulty, Director, Southeast Climate Hub, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

U.S. Caribbean

• Chapter Lead: Pablo A. Mendez-Lazaro, Associated Professor, University of Puerto Rico-Medical Sciences Campus 

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Lisamarie Carrubba, Deputy Division Chief, Endangered Species Act Interagency Cooperation Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Marine Fisheries Service

• Agency Coordinating Lead: William A. Gould, Climate Hub Director, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service

Midwest

• Chapter Lead: Aaron B. Wilson, Research Scientist, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center and Ohio State University Extension, The Ohio State University

• Federal Coordinating Lead: John M. Baker, Research Leader, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Barbara Mayes Boustead, Meteorologist Instructor, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Weather Service

Northern Great Plains

• Chapter Lead: Corrine Noel Knapp, Assistant Professor, Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Wyoming

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Douglas R. Kluck, Regional Climate Services Director, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service 

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Research Ecologist, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

Southern Great Plains

• Chapter Lead: Renee A. McPherson, Associate Professor and University Director, University of Oklahoma and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Philip A. Fay, Research Ecologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service, Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Northwest

• Chapter Lead: Michael Chang, Senior Associate and Racial Equity Lead, Cascadia Consulting Group

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Li H. Erikson, Research Oceanographer and Coastal Engineer, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Charles H. Luce, Research Hydrologist, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service

Southwest

• Chapter Lead: Dave D. White, Deputy Director and Professor, Arizona State University

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Emile H. Elias, Director, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Southwest Climate Hub

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Kathryn A Thomas, Supervisory Research Ecologist, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

Alaska

• Chapter Lead: Henry P. Huntington, Arctic Science Director, Ocean Conservancy

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Colleen Strawhacker, Program Director, National Science Foundation (NSF)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Jeffrey A. Falke, Unit Leader, Research Fisheries Biologist, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Ecosystems/Cooperative Research Units; Ellen M. Ward, Resource Management Specialist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Hawaii and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands

• Chapter Lead: Abby G. Frazier, Assistant Professor, Clark University

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Mari-Vaughn V. Johnson, Director, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center

• Agency Coordinating Lead: N/A

Adaptation

• Chapter Lead: Emily Wasley, Climate Risk, Adaptation, and Resilience Practice Lead, WSP

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Travis A. Dahl, Research Hydraulic Engineer, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Engineer Research and Development Center

• Agency Coordinating Lead: Chris Swanston, Acting Director, Office of Sustainability and Climate, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service

Mitigation

• Chapter Lead: Steven J. Davis, Professor, University of California, Irvine

• Federal Coordinating Lead: Rebecca Dodder, Supervisory Physical Scientist, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• Agency Coordinating Lead: David D. Turner, Manager, Atmospheric Science for Renewable Energy Program, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Systems Laboratory

USGCRP recognizes that a robust public engagement strategy is vital to developing a National Climate Assessment that is relevant to its users. The NCA5 process is designed to be transparent and inclusive, offering multiple opportunities for public participation. As in previous assessments, NCA5 will offer public calls for authors and for input on other key aspects of its development. In addition, NCA5 will undergo an extensive, multi-phase review process that will engage the public. This approach is designed to result in a report that is transparent, inclusive, and authoritative; valued by authors and users; and accessible to the widest possible audience. 

Current Opportunities

• Technical inputs. We invite you to share additional information or technical inputs (peer-reviewed literature, gray literature, case studies, etc.) with the chapter author teams here. Please note that inputs received early in the process (such as those received during the open call) are more likely to shape chapter development.

Please check back for more information on opportunities to get involved or sign up for the USGCRP newsletter.

Recent Opportunities

• Call for Public Comment on the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment
• Call for Art
• Call for Review Editor Nominations
• NCA5 Engagement Workshops
• Call for Public Comment on the Annotated Outline of the Fifth National Climate Assessment
• Call for Author Nominations and Technical Inputs
• Call for Public Comment on the Draft Prospectus for the Fifth National Climate Assessment

Thank you for your interest in the Fifth National Climate Assessment. The workshop series has ended and agendas can be found below. If you are interested in learning about upcoming opportunities, please subscribe to USGCRP's newsletter.

November/December

• Third Order Draft Public Webinar #1
  November 29, 2022, 12–1 PM ET

• Third Order Draft Public Webinar #1
  December 1, 2022, 5–6 PM ET

January

• Human Social Systems
  January 11, 12 PM–4 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity
  January 11, 12 PM–4 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand
  January 12, 12 PM–4 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Alaska
  January 12, 8:30 AM –1 PM AKST
  Flyer | Agenda

• Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities
  January 14 ,12 PM–4 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Northeast
  January 18, 9 AM–12 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems
  January 18, 12 PM–2 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Land Cover and Land-Use Change 
  January 18, 11 AM–3 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Air Quality 
  January 18, 11 AM–3 PM ET
  PDF | Agenda

• Tribes and Indigenous Peoples 
  January 18, 12 PM–4 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• U.S. Caribbean
  January 19, 11 AM–3:30 PM AST
  Flyer | Anuncio | Agenda

• Midwest 
  January 24,  9 AM–1:30 PM CT
  Flyer | Agenda

• Northern Great Plains 
  January 24, 12 PM–3:10 PM MT
  Flyer | Agenda

• Hawaiʻi & U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands 
  January 24, 12 PM–4:30 PM HST
  Flyer | Agenda

• Oceans and Marine Resources
  January 25, 1 PM–5 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Coastal Effects
  January 26,  12 PM–4 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities
  January 28, 1 PM–5 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Economics
  January 31, 12 PM–4 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Southeast
  January 31, 6:30 PM–8:30 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

February

• Southeast
  February 1, 11 AM–3:30 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Forests
  February 1, 12 PM–4 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Northwest
  February 1, 9:30 AM–2 PM PT
  Flyer | Agenda

• Transportation
  February 1, 2 PM –6 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Southwest
  February 4, 10 AM–1:30 PM PT
  Flyer | Agenda
  Adaptation 
  February 7, 11 AM–3:30 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Mitigation
  February 7, 1 PM–5 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Northern Great Plains
  February 7, 5:30 PM–7:30 PM MT
  Flyer | Agenda

• Climate Effects on U.S. International Interests
  February 9, 10 AM–2 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Water
  February 9, 12 PM–4 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Human Health
  February 11, 11:30 AM–3 PM ET
  Flyer | Agenda

• Southern Great Plains

  • February 15
    12 PM–1:30 PM CT
    Flyer | Agenda
    2:30 PM–4 PM CT
    Flyer | Agenda
    5:30 PM–7 PM CT
    Flyer | Agenda

  • February 16 
    12 PM–1:30 PM CT
    Flyer | Agenda