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Fifth National Climate Assessment

Development of the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) is currently underway, with anticipated delivery in 2023. This content will be updated as new information becomes available.

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GCRA Mandate

GCRA Mandate

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established by Presidential initiative in 1989 and mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990. Its mandate is to develop and coordinate “a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”

USGCRP comprises 13 federal agencies that conduct or use research on global change and its impacts on society. It functions under the direction of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research of the National Science and Technology Council’s Committee on Environment.
 
USGCRP has four major sets of responsibilities: (a) coordinating global change research across the Federal Government, (b) developing and distributing mandated products, (c) helping to inform decisions, and (d) facilitating international research coordination.  
 
In addition to an annual report to Congress and a Strategic Plan, the GCRA mandates that USGCRP prepare and submit to the President and the Congress a quadrennial assessment, referred to as the National Climate Assessment (NCA), which:
 
  • Integrate[s], evaluate[s], and interpret[s] the findings of the Program and discuss[es] the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings
  • Analyze[s] the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity
  • Analyze[s] current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and project[s] major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years
 
The Fifth NCA is in the early stages of development. Please visit this page for periodic updates on its progress.

 

About NCA5

About NCA5

The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5), currently in the early stages of development, will analyze the impacts of global change in the United States.
 
The development of NCA5 is overseen by a Federal Steering Committee appointed by the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (SGCR) and comprising representatives from USGCRP agencies. NOAA, as the administrative agency for NCA5, is responsible for establishing procedures for the report, releasing Federal Register Notices, and certifying the report meets Information Quality Act and Evidence Act standards. 
 
The process is designed to be transparent and inclusive, offering multiple opportunities for public participation. As in previous assessments, NCA5 will undergo an extensive, multi-phase process of internal and external review from federal agency experts, the general public, and external peer review by a panel of experts established by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. This approach is designed to result in a report that is authoritative, timely, relevant, and policy neutral; valued by authors and users; accessible to the widest possible audience; and fully compliant with the GCRA and other applicable laws and policies.

 

NCA5 Roles

NCA5 Roles

NCA5 Participant Roles and Responsibilities
  • A Federal Steering Committee is responsible for the development, production, and content of the report as well as high-level scoping to ensure coherence, relevance, and responsiveness to the Global Change Research Act and the USGCRP Strategic Plan. The Federal Steering Committee (with concurrence from the SGCR) selects Federal Coordinating Lead Authors, Chapter Leads, and Review Editors based on a number of criteria, including scientific expertise and experience with scientific assessments.
  • Federal Coordinating Lead Authors oversee development of a given chapter and liaise with Chapter Lead Authors in their development of individual chapters. Federal Coordinating Lead Authors work across chapters to ensure consistency throughout the report.
  • Chapter Leads are federal or non-federal experts selected from a pool generated in part by a public nominations process. In consultation with Federal Coordinating Lead Authors, Chapter Leads organize, direct, and lead authorship of individual chapters. Chapter Author teams are established by the Chapter Leads with suggestions from the Federal Coordinating Lead Authors and the Federal Steering Committee. Chapters are submitted to the corresponding Federal Coordinating Lead Author, and ultimately transmitted to the Federal Steering Committee as the individual input of the Chapter Leads.
  • Chapter Authors are selected by the Chapter Leads in consultation with the Federal Coordinating Lead Author and Federal Steering Committee, based in part on nominations via the public call. They are responsible for developing chapter content. Chapter author teams work with Chapter Leads to develop draft chapters and edit those materials in response to comments received during the multiple rounds of review.
  • Technical Contributors provide limited, requested inputs into chapter development. They are selected on an as-needed basis, for specific needs identified by the author team. Technical Contributors may be selected from the pool of publicly nominated authors.
  • Review Editors are selected by the Federal Steering Committee from a pool of experts, including those generated through a public nomination process. Their role is to ensure that authors respond adequately, and provide sufficient justification for their responses to all comments received during the public and National Academies review periods.
  • The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) provides an expert, external panel to review the public draft of NCA5. In addition, NASEM maintains a standing committee to provide advice to USGCRP. That committee is updated regularly with publicly available information regarding the status and plans for NCA5.

 

NCA5 Regions

NCA5 Regions

NCA5 Regions

Map of different regions

 

NCA5 Engagement

NCA5 Engagement

USGCRP recognizes that a robust public engagement strategy is vital to developing a National Climate Assessment that is relevant to its users. The NCA5 process is designed to be transparent and inclusive, offering multiple opportunities for public participation. As in previous assessments, NCA5 will offer public calls for authors and for input on other key aspects of its development. In addition, NCA5 will undergo an extensive, multi-phase review process that will engage the public. This approach is designed to result in a report that is transparent, inclusive, and authoritative; valued by authors and users; and accessible to the widest possible audience. 
 

Current Opportunities

  • Technical inputs. We invite you to share additional information or technical inputs (peer-reviewed literature, gray literature, case studies, etc.) with the chapter author teams here. Please note that inputs received early in the process (such as those received during the open call) are more likely to shape chapter development.
Please check back for more information on opportunities to get involved or sign up for the USGCRP newsletter.

 

Recent Opportunities

  • Call for Author Nominations and Technical Inputs
  • Call for Public Comment on the Draft Prospectus for the Fifth National Climate Assessment

 

NCA5 FAQs

NCA5 FAQs

What is the U.S. Global Change Research Program? What does it do?
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (GCRA) to coordinate “a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.” USGCRP comprises 13 federal departments and agencies that conduct or use research on global change and its impacts on society.
 
What is the National Climate Assessment and why is it written?
The GCRA mandates that USGCRP deliver a quadrennial assessment, which has become known as the National Climate Assessment (NCA). The NCA is required to a) integrate, evaluate, and interpret the findings of the Program and discuss the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; b) analyze the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and c) analyze current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and project major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.
 
How many NCAs are there?
To date, four NCAs have been released. The first NCA was published in 2000, and the second was published in 2009. More information on these reports can be accessed here. The third NCA, Climate Change Impacts in the United States, was published in 2014 and can be accessed here. The fourth NCA (NCA4) was delivered in two volumes, the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) and Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States. It was completed in 2018.
 
NCA4 was released in two parts. Will that be the case for NCA5?
Volume I of NCA4, the CSSR, was a comprehensive update on the state of the science of climate change and its impacts. It was not intended to be a regular part of the NCA development process. 
 
NCA5 will draw heavily on the CSSR and, similar to previous NCAs, include a chapter that focuses on the state of the science of climate and global change and is fully responsive to the GCRA mandate.
 
Will NCA5 offer policy recommendations?
Consistent with common practice for USGCRP assessment products, NCA5 will be a technical scientific assessment. It will not make policy recommendations or evaluate existing or proposed policies.
 
When will NCA5 be released?
NCA5 is being developed on a four-year schedule, which began in January 2020. USGCRP respects the quadrennial mandate, and will work to ensure the assessment is completed as close as possible to that timeline while providing authors and staff the time to develop a comprehensive, transparent, and authoritative scientific assessment. See the current timeline for more information.

 

NCA5 Timeline

NCA5 Timeline

*Subject to Change

  • February 2020

    Federal Steering Committee established

  • Spring/Summer 2020

    Public call for Comment on draft Prospectus; Public call for nominations for Chapter Leads, Chapter Authors, and Technical Contributors, and call for scientific/technical Inputs; Chapter Leads selected

  • Fall 2020

    Chapter Leads and Coordinating Lead Authors meeting #1; Chapter Authors selected; All-Author meeting #1

  • Winter 2020

    Interagency review of Zero Order Draft

  • Early 2021

    Public call for Comment on Zero Order Draft; regional engagement workshops and public engagement webinars

  • Spring 2021

    First Order Draft developed by Chapter Author teams

  • Summer 2021

    Chapter Leads and Coordinating Lead Authors meeting #2

  • Summer/Fall 2021

    Interagency Review of Second Order Draft

  • Early 2022

    Public call for Review Editor nominations

  • Spring 2022

    Interagency review of Third Order Draft

  • Spring/Summer 2022

    Public call for Review of Third Order Draft; concurrent National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine review of draft

  • Summer 2022

    Review Editors selected

  • Fall 2022

    All-Author meeting #2

  • Winter 2022

    Final interagency review of Fourth Order Draft

  • Spring 2023

    Steering Committee review and clearance of Fifth Order Draft

  • Summer 2023

    Final Federal clearance

  • Summer/Fall 2023

    Final production and layout of report

  • Fall/Winter 2023

    Release of NCA5

Notices

  • Call for Author Nominations and Technical Inputs (Closed)
  • Request for Comment: NCA5 Draft Prospectus (Closed)

Sustained Assessment Products

  • NCA4 Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States (2018)
  • Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (2018)
  • NCA4 Volume I: Climate Science Special Report (2017)
  • Climate and Health Assessment (2016)
  • Global Climate Change, Food Security, and the U.S. Food System (2015)
  • Fourth National Climate Assessment
  • Third National Climate Assessment 2010–2014
  • Sustained Assessment Products
  • USGCRP Strategic Planning 2007–2012
  • Synthesis & Assessment Products 2006–2009
  • First National Climate Assessment 1997–2000

Sustained Assessment Resources

  • Webinars
  • USGCRP Indicator Platform
  • USGCRP Scenarios
  • Sustained Assessment background documents
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