Highlights

Since 1989, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has submitted annual reports to Congress called Our Changing Planet. The reports describe the status of USGCRP research activities, provide progress updates, and document recent accomplishments.

In particular, Our Changing Planet highlights progress and accomplishments in interagency activities. These highlights represent the broad spectrum of USGCRP activities that extend from Earth system observations, modeling, and fundamental research through synthesis and assessment, decision support, education, and public engagement. Highlights describe the state of science at the time of publication of each yearly report, and may not reflect more recent advances in understanding. The date of publication of the source report is noted on each highlight page.

Building Regional Collaboration for Drought Resilience

In 2015, drought impacts in the Western United States cost an estimated $4.5 billion. Impacts included the fallowing of hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland, excess groundwater pumping, and the exacerbation of wildfire conditions, which contributed to fires that caused the highest annual total of U.S. acreage burned since record-keeping began in 1960. As these impacts become more prevalent under a changing climate, preparedness, including an early-warning system for drought conditions, is increasingly important in many parts of the United States. The...

Successfully Predicting the Large 2015/2016 El Niño

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a periodic fluctuation of sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the tropical Pacific Ocean. During the El Niño phase of the cycle, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms substantially. This can cause significant short-term increases in global-average surface temperatures, and through atmospheric teleconnections, a strong El Niño event can affect weather patterns around the globe. A particularly strong El Niño emerged during the winter/spring season of...

Indicators are measurements or calculations that represent how a complex system is changing over time—for instance, the unemployment rate is an indicator of overall economic health. For the climate system, indicators offer a simple representation of how a highly complex system is changing, providing a benchmark for decision makers that can be used as a gateway into more complex and context-specific information. Indicators allow multiple audiences—including scientists, planners, policy makers, educators, and the public—to better understand and communicate the causes and effects of climate...

Modeling Permafrost Response to Climate Change

Vast quantities of carbon—twice the size of the current amount in the atmosphere—are stored in frozen permafrost soils in Arctic regions. The Arctic climate is warming much more rapidly than the global average, leaving these carbon pools highly vulnerable to release into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane as soils thaw and decompose, leading to a feedback cycle of further warming and increasing carbon release. The potential for these carbon stocks to increase global-warming rates, and the rapid changes already observed in the permafrost region, have captured the attention of...

Improving Predictions of Changing Arctic Ecosystems

A key challenge for Earth System Models is accurately representing land surface and subsurface processes and their complex interactions in a warming climate. This is true for ecosystems across the globe, but particularly critical for Arctic ecosystems, which are projected to warm at a rate twice that of the global average by the end of the 21st century. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE-Arctic) project is addressing this challenge by integrating process studies, ecosystem observations, and computational...

Much of the precipitation along the U.S. West Coast is delivered by phenomena known as “atmospheric rivers”—narrow bands of moist air that may extend for thousands of miles across regions outside of the tropics, and play a critical role in regional water supply and storm activity. Atmospheric-river events play a beneficial role in building up Western water supply and snowpack but are also the source of a large majority of floods in the region. Many uncertainties about key processes that affect storm development...

On February 11, 2016, workers in California ended the largest reported natural gas leak in U.S. history. The Aliso Canyon leak released methane and other gases into the atmosphere from an underground-storage facility for over three months, causing the evacuation of more than 5,000 households. Researchers from NOAA, NASA, Scientific Aviation, the University of California, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the California Air Resources Board, and South Coast Air Quality Management District mobilized rapidly to assess the environmental impacts of the leak,...

Tracking Methane Emissions from Arctic Tundra

The Arctic tundra is a cold, desert-like biome, with a layer of permanently frozen soil and organic matter below the surface containing vast stocks of carbon. As Arctic tundra soils warm in response to climate change, methane emissions from decomposing organic material could increase dramatically, representing a potentially significant positive feedback on climate warming. However, seasonal and climatic influences on methane emissions from these systems are not well understood outside of the summer months, representing a major uncertainty for the Arctic methane budget. To help address a...

This map shows projected changes in the annual frequency of tropical cyclone formation, averaged from the output of seven models, under the combined conditions of 1) a 2°C increase in sea surface temperatures, and 2) a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxi

Tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) generate serious costs to human life, property, and the economy. Understanding how the behavior of tropical cyclones may change in a warmer climate is important for long-range coastal planning and infrastructure investments to minimize impacts. To help address this prediction challenge, NASA, NOAA, NSF, and DOE have cosponsored a Hurricane Working Group (HWG), organized through the interagency

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NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 satellite (above) was a landmark 2014 addition to the U.S. portfolio of Earth observing systems. (Source: NASA)

Civil Earth observations support key public services, long-term research, scientific discovery, and technological innovation. The Federal Government makes significant investments each year in civil Earth observations and data across multiple agencies, in addition to utilizing investments made by academia, industry, and state, local, and tribal governments. Planning and evaluation are critical to ensure that these investments lead to Earth observations that are streamlined, effective, and immediately useful.

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Highlights

Building Regional Collaboration for Drought Resilience

Successfully Predicting the Large 2015/2016 El Niño

Improving Indicators of Change

Modeling Permafrost Response to Climate Change

Improving Predictions of Changing Arctic Ecosystems

Understanding Atmospheric Rivers and West Coast Precipitation

Measuring the Largest Methane Leak in U.S. History

Tracking Methane Emissions from Arctic Tundra

Tropical Cyclones in a Warmer World

Evaluating U.S. Earth Observation