Scenarios are plausible alternative futures, each describing what might happen under a range of possible assumptions about policy decisions and the behavior of the Earth system. By illustrating possible future conditions, scenarios provide a basis for analyzing the potential impacts of and responses to global change. USGCRP is working to develop scenarios of change for the United States that can feed into the sustained-assessment process and support the needs of both scientists and stakeholders, focused on population, demographics, land-use change, sea-level rise and coastal flood risk,...
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Highlights
Since 1989, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has submitted annual reports to Congress called Our Changing Planet. The reports describe the status of USGCRP research activities, provide progress updates, and document recent accomplishments
In particular, Our Changing Planet highlights progress and accomplishments in interagency activities. These highlights represent the broad spectrum of USGCRP activities that extend from Earth system observations, modeling, and fundamental research through synthesis and assessment, decision support, education, and public engagement.
START (global change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training) promotes research-driven capacity-building to advance knowledge on global environmental change in Africa and Asia-Pacific, through research grants and fellowships, knowledge assessments and syntheses, curricula development, advanced-training institutes, multi-stakeholder dialogues, and place-based strategic planning. In 2015, with support from USGCRP, START enhanced the ability of over 300 researchers selected as fellows and their partners to incorporate climate information...
Vast quantities of carbon—twice the size of the current amount in the atmosphere—are stored in frozen permafrost soils in Arctic regions. The Arctic climate is warming much more rapidly than the global average, leaving these carbon pools highly vulnerable to release into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane as soils thaw and decompose, leading to a feedback cycle of further warming and increasing carbon release. The potential for these carbon stocks to increase global-warming rates, and the rapid changes already observed in the permafrost region, have captured the attention of...
A key challenge for Earth System Models is accurately representing land surface and subsurface processes and their complex interactions in a warming climate. This is true for ecosystems across the globe, but particularly critical for Arctic ecosystems, which are projected to warm at a rate twice that of the global average by the end of the 21st century. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE-Arctic) project is addressing this challenge by integrating process studies, ecosystem observations, and computational...
Much of the precipitation along the U.S. West Coast is delivered by phenomena known as “atmospheric rivers”—narrow bands of moist air that may extend for thousands of miles across regions outside of the tropics, and play a critical role in regional water supply and storm activity. Atmospheric-river events play a beneficial role in building up Western water supply and snowpack but are also the source of a large majority of floods in the region. Many uncertainties about key processes that affect storm development...
On February 11, 2016, workers in California ended the largest reported natural gas leak in U.S. history. The Aliso Canyon leak released methane and other gases into the atmosphere from an underground-storage facility for over three months, causing the evacuation of more than 5,000 households. Researchers from NOAA, NASA, Scientific Aviation, the University of California, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the California Air Resources Board, and South Coast Air Quality Management District mobilized rapidly to assess the environmental impacts of the leak,...
The Arctic tundra is a cold, desert-like biome, with a layer of permanently frozen soil and organic matter below the surface containing vast stocks of carbon. As Arctic tundra soils warm in response to climate change, methane emissions from decomposing organic material could increase dramatically, representing a potentially significant positive feedback on climate warming. However, seasonal and climatic influences on methane emissions from these systems are not well understood outside of the summer months, representing a major uncertainty for the Arctic methane budget. To help address a...