Highlights

Since 1989, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has submitted annual reports to Congress called Our Changing Planet. The reports describe the status of USGCRP research activities, provide progress updates, and document recent accomplishments.

In particular, Our Changing Planet highlights progress and accomplishments in interagency activities. These highlights represent the broad spectrum of USGCRP activities that extend from Earth system observations, modeling, and fundamental research through synthesis and assessment, decision support, education, and public engagement. Highlights describe the state of science at the time of publication of each yearly report, and may not reflect more recent advances in understanding. The date of publication of the source report is noted on each highlight page.

The U.S. research centers that develop climate and Earth system models and the U.S. scientific community are key participants in long-running collaborative efforts to improve knowledge on climate change. A number of major interagency activities supporting improvements in climate modeling took place in 2019.

Most prominently, the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is currently in its sixth phase (CMIP6). The earlier phases of CMIP experiments have provided the research community...

A researcher launches a radiosonde instrument attached to a weather balloon to capture detailed atmospheric data.

The Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica is the stormiest place on Earth, marked by heavy cloud cover that helps determine how much of the sun’s energy reaches Earth’s surface. Due in part to the scarcity of field data from the region, current climate models have difficulty reproducing the behavior of clouds over the Southern Ocean, which in turn affects how well they can simulate current and future climate. Motivated by these data limitations, an international multi-agency effort collected atmospheric and oceanographic data via ship-, aircraft-, and island-based instrumentation in a...

The ability to archive and share datasets generated by field, experimental, and modeling activities is a critical component of Earth system and global change research. Several recent interagency efforts aim to support advances in global change data access, synthesis, and use.

DOE recently launched the Environmental Systems Science Data Infrastructure for a Virtual Ecosystem (ESS-DIVE), a publicly accessible archive of Earth and environmental science data generated by DOE-supported ecosystems research...

A natural-color image captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite on August 27, 2017, shows dozens of wildfires burning in the western United States.

Wildfires affect communities throughout the United States each year, threatening lives, property and infrastructure, and ecosystems.^[1] Understanding the climatic conditions that influence wildfire patterns can improve our ability to predict the occurrence and severity of future wildfires, and ultimately support the development of effective adaptation strategies.

In response to this need, multiple programs within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Department of the Interior’s...

Methane emitted from thawing permafrost below an Arctic thermokarst lake is trapped in bubbles of many different sizes and shapes as the ice grows during the winter.

Long-frozen northern soils known as permafrost contain one of the world’s largest stores of organic carbon. This reservoir is stable while soils are frozen, but as permafrost thaws, decomposition of biomass by microbes produces the heat-trapping gases carbon dioxide and methane, returning soil carbon to the atmosphere where it contributes to climate change. Permafrost carbon stores are expected to be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition as the climate continues to change, leading to a feedback cycle of further warming and permafrost thaw.^[1]...

Coordinated experiments run across major Earth system models help improve model projections and advance climate science understanding.

Projections of the future state of the Earth system can differ significantly across models, with various potential sources of uncertainty. To better understand the sources of difference and where fundamental scientific understanding can be improved, the Earth system modeling community uses a set of experiments run across many models known as the ...

Model runs of CMIP5 models without greenhouse gas forcing (orange lines) demonstrate natural variability in average annual global surface temperatures expected without human influence on the climate.

Earth system models allow researchers to evaluate the size and strength of various influences on the climate system and identify the human contribution to the warming trend.

Earth system models allow researchers to distinguish “internal” climate variability (natural climate cycles) from the effects of “external” influences on the climate, both human and natural (including variations in incoming solar energy, volcanic eruptions, and greenhouse gas emissions from human activities). Model simulations of natural variability from the...

The January 2016 melt event on the West Antarctic ice sheet was captured by satellite and surface observations.

An observing campaign on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is improving understanding of influences on recent ice loss and the implications for future sea level rise.

Antarctica holds the largest reservoir of ice on Earth and is significant contributor to sea level rise. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, once considered relatively stable, has shed an increasing amount of ice...

Using 29 years of data from Landsat satellites, researchers at NASA found extensive greening in the vegetation across Alaska and Canada.

Scientists are using satellites to collect detailed data on forest change in remote parts of Alaska and the Arctic.

Rapid warming in the Arctic and boreal regions of Alaska is affecting boreal forests and tundra ecosystems in a number of ways. Higher temperatures and changes in precipitation have led to a higher incidence of wildfire and increased tree mortality from drought, insects, and disease. Increases in the length of the growing season and the amount of energy produced by vegetation have also been observed. While tracking how climate...

Map shows the average active layer thickness (ALT) at the end of the growing season for the Barrow, Alaska region that contains the NGEE Arctic study site.

Scientists are gaining new understanding of processes that control greenhouse gas emissions from Arctic permafrost, a potential driver of significant future warming.

Rapid warming in the Arctic is causing carbon-rich soils known as permafrost, previously frozen for millennia, to thaw. As thawing soils decompose, the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane are released into the atmosphere in varying proportions depending on the conditions under which decomposition occurs. Permafrost emissions could contribute significantly to future warming...

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Highlights

Modeling efforts drive advances in projections of future climate change

Unprecedented observations in the Southern Ocean help improve global climate models

New data infrastructure helps build a virtual ecosystem of Earth science information

Drought and wildfire research supports adaptation planning in the western United States

Scientists investigate the effects of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost soils

Collaborative modeling experiments to improve understanding of the future of the Earth system

Exploring human and natural influences on climate

Investigating ice sheet change in Antarctica

Detecting the drivers of forest change in Alaska and the Arctic

Understanding carbon cycling in Arctic ecosystems