Highlights

Since 1989, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has submitted annual reports to Congress called Our Changing Planet. The reports describe the status of USGCRP research activities, provide progress updates, and document recent accomplishments.

In particular, Our Changing Planet highlights progress and accomplishments in interagency activities. These highlights represent the broad spectrum of USGCRP activities that extend from Earth system observations, modeling, and fundamental research through synthesis and assessment, decision support, education, and public engagement.

Model runs of CMIP5 models without greenhouse gas forcing (orange lines) demonstrate natural variability in average annual global surface temperatures expected without human influence on the climate.

Earth system models allow researchers to evaluate the size and strength of various influences on the climate system and identify the human contribution to the warming trend.

Earth system models allow researchers to distinguish “internal” climate variability (natural climate cycles) from the effects of “external” influences on the climate, both human and natural (including variations in incoming solar energy, volcanic eruptions, and greenhouse gas emissions from human activities). Model simulations of natural variability from the...

Regional climate projections can provide information on likely future changes in climate, ecosystems, and water resources at useful scales.

In the Pacific Northwest, average temperatures are projected to increase by at least two and up to 15° F by end of the century, dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions levels. Winters are expected to become wetter and summers drier, snowpack will likely decrease substantially, and snowmelt runoff may occur earlier in the year. Wildfires are projected to become more frequent and more severe, and...

Collaboration across regions and institutions in Alaska supports increased resilience to climate-related risks to lives and livelihoods.

In Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and weather have increased risks to human lives and threats to valuable natural resources, damaged infrastructure, and disrupted hunting, fishing, and livelihoods. The vast and largely undisturbed landscapes of Alaska and Northwest Canada support unique natural and cultural resources that are valued locally and globally. To help address these challenges, leaders...

Forecasts of ocean surface current velocity in the Pacific Ocean off of Baja California generated in part using in-situ observations from NOAA’s Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO)

Upgrades to an observing network in the equatorial Pacific Ocean support valuable forecasts of global shifts in climate and extreme weather.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate phenomenon driven in part by the variability of ocean surface temperatures, atmospheric pressure, and trade winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean. ENSO events, occurring every two to seven years on average, cause widespread shifts in precipitation patterns and weather and climate

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The 2017 annual minimum ozone detection of 131 Dobson Units over Antarctica was observed on October 9, 2017, about a week later than usual, indicating that ozone levels may be starting to recover.

Interagency collaboration sustains long-term measurements that track the health of the ozone layer.

Ozone gas in the upper atmosphere protects the planet’s surface from harmful solar radiation. The Antarctic ozone hole was discovered in 1985, increasing concerns about human emissions of gases that destroy ozone and the negative consequences for life on Earth. Two years later, the international community signed the Montreal Protocol, an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer through regulation of ozone-depleting compounds. Later...

Collaboration across the modeling community supports critical experiments and scientific advancement.

U.S. climate modeling centers play a central role in understanding and predicting global change on seasonal to centennial timescales. They are engaged in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which produces climate projections underpinning the assessments conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. National Climate Assessment. Models developed by these centers are designed for different purposes, from providing operational forecast...

A lake near Fairbanks, Alaska shows signs of thawing permafrost below the surface

By monitoring trends such as permafrost thaw, shifts in wildfire, and changing wildlife habitats, a multi-year field campaign seeks to provide the scientific basis for informed decision-making in response to change.

Climate change in the Arctic and Boreal Region is unfolding faster than anywhere else on Earth. Observations reveal reduced Arctic sea ice, widespread changes to coastlines and waterways, thawing of permafrost soils and decomposition of long-frozen organic matter, and shifts in ecosystem structure and function. These changes have far-reaching impacts in the...

The Strawberry Advisory System tool, which shows risk levels for climate-related disease in strawberry crops, helps growers make decisions about fungicide application.

Interagency efforts develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to help agricultural producers and natural resource managers make optimal management decisions.

Farmers, ranchers, and land managers across the country rely on weather and climate information in their management decisions. To help producers and managers better understand the risks and opportunities that extreme weather events and climate change present for their operations, interagency efforts produce and deliver a range of information tools and resources that help guide climate risk...

A NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) dust warning to motorists traveling along Interstate 10 near Lordsburg, New Mexico, tweeted in November 2017.

Interagency efforts are supporting preparedness and safety measures for critical transportation infrastructure.

Dust storms in the Southwest can create dangerous and deadly driving conditions, reducing visibility to near zero with very little warning. Interstate 10 is especially vulnerable to dangerous dust-related driving conditions as it passes through a dry lake bed west of Lordsburg near the Arizona border. To help reduce dust-related risks, the NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program and the DOT Federal Highway Administration coordinated with...

USGCRP co-led an international group of funders and implementers in initiating development of a collaborative research action.

The Belmont Forum is an international partnership between national research funding agencies and international science organizations focused on advancing transdisciplinary global change science and accelerating its application. Its Collaborative Research Actions (CRAs) combine natural science, social science, and stakeholder perspectives to produce knowledge for understanding and responding to global environmental change. In November...

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Highlights

Exploring human and natural influences on climate

Modeling future climate, vegetation, and hydrology in the Pacific Northwest

Building coastal resilience in Alaska

Strengthening critical observations of the tropical ocean and atmosphere

Monitoring recovery of the ozone layer

Enhancing coordination among U.S. modeling centers

Monitoring change in Alaska and the Arctic

Providing climate information tools to agricultural communities

Building infrastructure resilience

Developing international support for research on climate, environment, and human health