About NCA4 Vol. II
While the CSSR focuses on the physical science of
global change, NCA4 Vol. II will analyze the impacts of global change on topics and regions of the United States. The assessment is intended to include policy-relevant information about climate change impacts; it does not include policy or budget recommendations.
The development of NCA4 Vol. II is overseen by a Federal Steering Committee that was appointed by the SGCR and comprises representatives from USGCRP agencies. NOAA, as the administrative agency for NCA4, is responsible for establishing procedures for the report, releasing Federal Register Notices, and certifying the report meets Information Quality Act standards. To date, NCA4 Vol. II has undergone an extensive, multi-phase process of internal and external review from Federal agency experts, the general public, and a panel of experts from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
The draft findings in this assessment are based on a large body of peer-reviewed scientific literature, complemented by other sources, as appropriate. In addition, authors used well established and carefully evaluated observational and modeling datasets, technical input reports, USGCRP sustained assessment products, and a suite of
scenario products that inform regional and national topic analyses.
The following groups are contributing to NCA4 Vol. II:
- A Federal Steering Committee (SC) is responsible for the development, production, and content of the report as well as high-level scoping to ensure coherence, relevance, and responsiveness to the Global Change Research Act and the USGCRP Strategic Plan. The SC selects Federal Coordinating Lead Authors, Regional Chapter Leads, and Review Editors based on a number of criteria, including scientific expertise and experience with scientific assessments.
- Federal Coordinating Lead Authors (CLAs) oversee development of a given chapter and liaise with non-Federal Regional Chapter Leads or Federal or non-Federal National Chapter Leads in their development of individual chapters. The Federal CLAs also work across chapters to ensure consistency throughout the report.
- Agency Chapter Leads oversee the production of the National Topic and Response chapters and select National Chapter Leads. Effort was made to distribute the responsibility across USGCRP agencies.
- National Chapter Leads are either Federal or non-Federal experts who, in consultation with Federal CLAs, organize, direct, and lead authorship of individual National Topic or Response chapters. Chapter Author teams are established by the National Chapter Leads, with suggestions from the Federal CLAs and the SC. Chapters are submitted to the corresponding Federal CLA, and ultimately transmitted to the SC as the individual input of the National Chapter Leads.
- Regional Chapter Leads are non-Federal experts selected by the SC from a pool of experts put forward through a public nominations process. In consultation with Federal CLAs, Regional Chapter Leads organize, direct, and lead authorship of individual regional chapters. Chapter Author teams are established by the Regional Chapter Leads, with suggestions from the Federal CLAs and the SC. Chapters are submitted to the corresponding Federal CLA, and ultimately transmitted to the SC as the individual input of the Regional Chapter Leads.
- Chapter Authors are selected by the Chapter Lead and responsible for developing chapter content. Chapter author teams work with Regional or National Chapter Leads to develop and edit individual chapters in response to comments received during the multiple rounds of review.
- Technical Contributors provide inputs into chapter development, but do not directly author sections of NCA4 Vol. II. They are selected on an as-needed basis, based on specific needs identified by the author team.
- Review Editors are selected by the SC from a pool of experts put forward through a public nominations process. Their role is to ensure the authors adequately respond to all comments received during the public and National Academies review periods.
NCA4 Vol. II Table of Contents
- Overview [Executive Summary]
- Our Changing Climate [NCA4 Vol. I summary]
- Energy Supply, Delivery, & Demand
Land Cover& Land UseChange
Ecosystem Services, & Biodiversity
- Coastal Effects
- Oceans & Marine Resources
- Agriculture & Rural Communities
- Built Environment, Urban Systems, & Cities
- Air Quality
- Human Health
- Tribes & Indigenous Peoples
- Climate Effects on US International Interests
- Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems
- US Caribbean
- Northern Great Plains
- Southern Great Plains
- Hawai`i & Pacific Islands
AdaptationNeeds & Increased Resiliency
- Reducing Risks through Emissions
- Information Quality Act
- Data Tools & Scenario Products
- International Context
- Frequently Asked Questions
(Subject to change)
Early 2016: Federal Steering Committee established
Summer: Public comment on draft Prospectus; Process guidance developed
Summer/Fall: Public call for technical inputs and author nominations (specifically, Regional Chapter Leads); Regional background webinars
Fall: Agency Leads, Federal CLAs, and Chapter Leads selected
December: Preliminary chapter outlines reviewed by Steering Committee
Late 2016/Early 2017: Chapter Authors selected by Chapter Leads
January: Interagency review of revised chapter outlines (Zero Order Draft)
Early Spring: Regional Engagement Workshops and Public Engagement Webinars
Spring: First Order Drafts developed by Chapter Author teams
July/August: NOAA Technical Support Unit (TSU) edits First Order Drafts; authors revise in light of comments, resulting in Second Order Draft
August: Interagency review of Second Order Draft
September/October: Authors and TSU revise chapters, resulting in Third Order Draft
November 3: Release of Third Order Draft for Public Comment & review by an expert panel of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM)
Late 2017/Early 2018: Third Order Draft out for public and NASEM review
Early 2018: Authors work with Review Editors to revise chapters, resulting in Fourth Order Draft
Spring/Summer: Interagency review and final Federal clearance
Summer/Fall: Final production and layout of report
December 2018: Expected final publication of NCA4 Vol. II