Wildfires affect communities throughout the United States each year, threatening lives, property and infrastructure, and ecosystems.^[1] Understanding the climatic conditions that influence wildfire patterns can improve our ability to predict the occurrence and severity of future wildfires, and ultimately support the development of effective adaptation strategies. 

 

In response to this need, multiple programs within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Department of the Interior’s Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) are collaborating with the USDA Forest Service (USDA-FS) and other partners to deliver the data needed to understand and plan for changes in wildfire risk. Several papers published in 2018 describe results from efforts funded by the Alaska CASC that included use of climate model data supported by DOE, NOAA, and DOI; and wildfire data from USDA-FS and DOI.

 

Researchers supported by USGS and USDA-FS investigated how future changes in climate might affect area burned in different types of ecosystems in the western United States, producing data at scales relevant for watershed and landscape management.^[2] While results suggest that area burned will continue to increase on a regional level, outcomes for individual landscape types vary. Area burned is expected to grow in forests and some areas with a mix of forests and non-forest vegetation but decrease in some (though not necessarily all) drier non-forested ecosystems with limited fuel. However, because of changes in other factors that influence wildfire (such as land use, fire suppression practices, or invasive species) that can be difficult to anticipate, these projections do not represent long-term forecasts. 

 

In another project, a USGS researcher examined the current understanding of the relationship between wildfire and drought, and recommended key research directions aimed at increasing the usefulness of that knowledge for managing fire risk.^[3] Information on how climate conditions and drought influence wildfire over different timescales, along with a greater understanding of how people affect and respond to wildfires in the longer term, could ultimately result in predictions of the timing and size of future wildfires for use in regional planning.

---