Reducing the Health Risks of Extreme Heat
Awareness surrounding the connection between climate change and human health is growing. USGCRP’s The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment projected a potential increase of “thousands to tens of thousands of premature heat-related deaths in the summer” by 2100, driven by longer, more frequent, and more intense heat waves.
The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS), launched by NOAA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in June of 2015, has made significant progress towards linking early-warning capabilities to improve preparedness for extreme-heat events. Building on the October 2014 Heat Health Summit, a July 2015 planning workshop focused on developing NIHHIS and understanding local and international approaches to heat-health early warning and long-term risk reduction. These workshops catalyzed a global wave of interest in improving the heat-health information available to decision makers, as well as institutional capacity to build preparedness, communication, and knowledge sharing across disciplines and geographies. During the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) PrepareAthon! Extreme Heat Week in May of 2016, a White House webinar on preparing communities for extreme heat was held to share knowledge and build capacity for addressing heat risks, and the NIHHIS web portal was launched with multiagency support—including EPA, DOD, NOAA, FEMA, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and others.
NOAA-supported research on prediction of extreme heat from weather-to-climate timescales continued while CDC pursued a comprehensive national assessment of health risks associated with extreme heat. Local NIHHIS engagements in the Southwest and Northeast, based in El Paso, Texas and New York, New York, respectively, are developing a thorough understanding of the local experience of extreme heat, as well as research and integrated climate-health-information needs. Additional local-regional engagements are planned for 2017 and onward in the West, Midwest, and Southeastern United States. At the international scale, partnerships have expanded with government agencies and nongovernmental actors, including the India Meteorological Department and the Natural Resources Defense Council. NIHHIS was visible at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris in December 2015, and the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum in April 2016.

NOAA’s U.S. Temperature Hazards Outlook, available on the National Integrated Heat Health Information System web portal, provides a probabilistic estimate of where temperatures are expected to be either much below normal (15th percentile) or much above normal (85th percentile), and where those conditions pose a hazard to life or property. Forecast confidence is categorized as slight, moderate, or high, with the categories indicating a 20%, 40%, or 60% chance of occurrence, respectively. Forecasts are available for 3-7 days or 8-14 days in the future; this image depicts an 8–14 day forecast. Short-range forecasts and region-specific information are available through local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. (Source: NOAA.)