USGCRP News

Alaskan Permafrost Mapped from the Skies

Becky Fried, Policy Analyst,

Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President

Last week, the Interior Department’s US Geological Survey (USGS) released details about a landmark airborne survey of permafrost in the Yukon Flats of Alaska that yielded some of the most detailed, data-rich maps of permafrost ever generated. Permafrost—frozen ground that remains at or below water’s freezing point for at least two years—accounts for only 0.022% of all water on Earth, but it covers more than 20% of exposed land of Earth’s northern high latitudes (in addition to areas of Antarctica and the Patagonia region), where it plays a potentially important role in climate dynamics. Continue reading...

NOAA and NASA: Warm Temperatures Continue

Philip B Duffy, Senior Policy Analyst,
Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President

This week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) released temperature data showing that 2011 was one of the warmest years since record-keeping began in 1880. The global temperature continued to be extremely warm even though at least two factors acted to push it downwards in the short term.

Despite a slight drop of about 0.2°F from 2010—which had tied with 2005 for the warmest year ever recorded—the data show that Earth continues to experience warmer temperatures than a few decades ago. NOAA’s analysis ranked 2011 as the 11^th warmest year, while NASA’s showed 2011 to be the 9^th warmest (rankings are expected to differ slightly because temperature differences between the warmest years are extremely small). Both rankings are consistent with a clear trend of increasing global temperatures—with the 12 hottest years on record all occurring since 1997, and the decade that started in 2000 the hottest in recorded history.

Still, the data also show that temperatures have not changed much since 2005, the year that tied 2010 as the warmest ever recorded. If temperatures have not risen recently, does that mean climate change has stopped? Actually, no. Just as stock prices do not go up every day in a bull market, global temperatures do not rise every year in an era of warming. In both cases, to understand if an upward trend will continue, one must look at the underlying forces that drive it.

In the case of climate change, the most important underlying force is increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This results primarily from human burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas). Fossil fuel use not only continues, but is growing. And because carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas, remains in the atmosphere for many decades, the amount in the atmosphere increases even in those unusual years when emissions are flat or decrease slightly. For example when global carbon dioxide emissions dipped by about 1% as a result of the recent global recession, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere—which is the force that drives temperature—continued to increase. And in most years emissions increase, so the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases at an even greater rate.

So why don’t temperatures go up every year? Because although increasing greenhouse gases are the most important force driving the global temperature, they are not the only force. Weather variations, for example, push the global temperature up or down slightly every year. Powerful volcanic eruptions can cause noticeable cooling for a couple of years. And the energy output of the sun varies slightly (although since satellite measurements started in 1980 there has been no steady up or down trend in the sun). These and other forces cause global temperatures to vary slightly from year to year. To get a reliable indication of trends, one needs to consider at least a decade or two.

It’s noteworthy that 2011 was very warm despite two temporary cooling influences. The figure below shows that global temperatures were high in 2011 even though a weather variation known as La Niña caused colder than average temperatures over much of the Pacific Ocean. (La Niña is a temporary cooling of temperatures in the Eastern tropical Pacific region, which has widespread impacts, including a slight global cooling.) And between about 2005 and 2010 the sun’s energy output was lower than ever recorded, which also pushed temperatures down a little. Both these forces are likely to reverse—in fact the sun’s energy output already has—which can be expected to drive future temperatures upwards in coming years.

Although the temperatures discussed above, which are measured just above the ground or ocean, are the most common way to gauge the global temperature, other data can be useful as well. In particular, the “ocean heat content,” which involves ocean temperatures from the surface down to about 6,000 feet, is less susceptible to year-to-year variations. This shows a steady march upwards, with each of the last 10 years setting a new record.

The continued high temperatures—despite downward pressure from La Niña and the sun, together with ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases and ocean heat content—show that global warming continues.

Figure: Map showing 2011 temperatures as differences from the long-term average of 1971 through 2000. Red indicates warmer than average temperatures, blue colder than average. Colder than average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean region show the influence of La Niña, a common weather variation. Despite this strong temporary cooling influence, global temperatures remained very high in 2011.

Related Links

NASA News Release: NASA Finds 2011 Ninth Warmest Year on Record

NOAA News Release: 2011 A Year of Climate Extremes in the United States

U.S. Scientists Call for Integrated Study of Carbon Cycle

The carbon cycle science community in the United States has just finished its planning process for carbon cycle research for the upcoming decade. This reassessment of the U.S. carbon cycle science priorities was initiated by the U.S. Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group (CCIWG) and Carbon Cycle Science Steering Group (CCSSG) in 2008. This planning process has culminated in the publication of the new U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan. The new Plan is intended to provide guidance for U.S. research efforts on the global carbon cycle for the next decade.

The Plan outlines priorities for research in carbon cycle science, including a substantial expansion in the scope of the field. In addition to reaffirming the need for basic research and for continuing the current areas of research in carbon cycle science, the Plan outlines specific recommendations for new priorities:

With greenhouse-gas concentrations rising rapidly, active management of the global carbon cycle is increasingly urgent. The plan outlines the need for carbon-cycle research on the efficacy and environmental consequences of carbon management policies, strategies, and technologies.
Because humans are an integral part of the carbon cycle, both through influences on “natural” systems and through direct emissions of greenhouse gases, study of the human elements of the carbon cycle must be more thoroughly integrated into the future research agenda.
The Plan recommends increased exploration of the direct impact of rising greenhouse gas concentrations and carbon-management decisions on ecosystems, species, and natural resources.
Finally, because decisions about the carbon cycle will inevitably be made with imperfect knowledge, the Plan emphasizes the need for a better understanding of uncertainly in all aspects of the global carbon cycle, and improved ways of conveying those uncertainties to policy and decision makers, as well as society at large.

Electronic copies of “A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan” are available at: http://www.carboncyclescience. gov/carbonplanning.php

Printed copies or copies on CD can be requested from the U.S Carbon Cycle Science Program Office, Dr. Gyami Shrestha at gshrestha@usgcrp.gov

Convening Lead Authors Announced for the National Climate Assessment (Dec. 6, 2011)

The following Convening Lead Authors have been announced for the National Climate Assessment 2013 Report.

A PDF document of the list can be found here: PDF

1. Introduction

2. Climate Change Science

Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois

John Walsh, University of Alaska Fairbanks

3. Water Resources

Paul Fleming, Seattle Public Utilities

Aris Georgakakos, Georgia Institute of Technology

4. Energy Supply and Use

Jan Dell, CH2MHill Consulting

Susan Tierney, Analysis Group Consultants

5. Transportation

Michael Meyer, Georgia Institute of Technology

Gerry Schwartz, HGS Consultants, LLC

6. Agriculture

Jerry Hatfield, United States Department of Agriculture

Gene Takle, Iowa State University

7. Forestry

Linda Joyce, United States Forest Service

Steve Running, University of Montana

8. Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Peter Groffman, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies

Peter Kareiva, The Nature Conservancy

9. Human Health

Kim Knowlton, Natural Resources Defense Council and Columbia University

George Luber, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

10. Water, Energy, Land Use

Kathy Hibbard, Pacific Northwest National Lab

Tom Wilson, Electric Power Research Institute

11. Urban, Infrastructure, Vulnerability

Susan Cutter, University of South Carolina

Bill Solecki, Hunter College of City University of New York

12. Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous and Native Lands and Resources

Bull Bennett, Kiksapa Consulting, LLC

Nancy Maynard, National Aeronautics and Space Administration

13. Land Use, Land Cover Change

Dan Brown, University of Michigan

Colin Polsky, Clark University

14. Rural Communities, Agriculture, and Development

David Hales, College of the Atlantic (Emeritus)

Bill Hohenstein, United States Department of Agriculture

15. Biogeochemical Cycles, with Implications for Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Jim Galloway, University of Virginia

William Schlesinger, Cary Institute for Ecosystem Studies

16. Northeast Region

Radley Horton, Columbia University and National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Gary Yohe, Wesleyan University

17. Southeast and Caribbean Region

Lynne Carter, Louisiana State University

Jim Jones, University of Florida

18. Midwest Region

Sara Pryor, University of Indiana

Don Scavia, University of Michigan

19. Great Plains Region

Dennis Ojima, Colorado State University

Mark Shafer, Oklahoma Climatological Survey

20. Southwest Region

Guido Franco, California Energy Commission

Gregg Garfin, University of Arizona

21. Northwest Region

Phil Mote, Oregon State University

Amy Snover, University of Washington

22. Alaska and Arctic Region

F. Stewart (Terry) Chapin, University of Alaska Fairbanks

Sarah Trainor, University of Alaska Fairbanks

23. Hawaii and Pacific Islands Region

Jo-Ann Leong, University of Hawaii

John Marra, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

24. Oceans and Marine Resources

Andy Rosenberg, Conservation International

25. Coastal Zone, Development, and Ecosystems

Margaret Davidson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Susi Moser, Susanne Moser Research & Consulting and Stanford University

26. Mitigation and Adaptation

Rosina Bierbaum, University of Michigan

Arthur Lee, Chevron Corporation

Joel Smith, Stratus Consulting

27. Agenda for Climate Change Science

Tony Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Diana Liverman, University of Arizona

28. The Sustained Assessment

Maria Blair, American Cancer Society

John Hall, United States Department of Defense

Bob Corell, Center for Energy and Climate Solutions

Federal Register Notice for the National Climate Assessment (Oct. 20, 2011)

October 20th, 2011

Federal Register Notice: "NOAA: National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee pdf | html

The NCADAC will meet November 16-17, 2011, at the following times: November 16 from 9 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. and November 17, 2011, from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. These times are subject to change. Please refer to the Web page http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/NCADAC/index.html for changes and for the most up-to-date meeting agenda.

The meeting will be held at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory—David Skaggs Research Center (DSRC), 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305-3337. Seating will be available on a first come, first served basis. Members of the public must RSVP in order to attend all or a portion of the meeting by contacting the NCADAC DFO (Cynthia.Decker@noaa.gov) by November 1, 2011.

The meeting will be open to public participation with a 30 minute public comment period on November 16 at 5 p.m. (check Web site to confirm time). The NCADAC expects that public statements presented at its meetings will not be repetitive of previously submitted verbal or written statements. In general, each individual or group making a verbal presentation will be limited to a total time of five (5) minutes. Individuals or groups planning to make a verbal presentation should contact the NCADAC DFO (Cynthia.Decker@noaa.gov) by November 10, 2011 to schedule their presentation. Written comments should be received in the NCADAC DFO's Office by November 10, 2011 to provide sufficient time for NCADAC review. Written comments received by the NCADAC DFO after November 10, 2011 will be distributed to the NCADAC, but may not be reviewed prior to the meeting date.

Special Accommodations: These meetings are physically accessible to people with disabilities. Requests for sign language interpretation or other auxiliary aids should be directed to Dr. Cynthia Decker (301-563-6162, Cynthia.Decker@noaa.gov) by November 1, 2011.

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