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Table
2a: VEMAP2 Climate Scenarios
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Description |
The VEMAP Phase 2 transient climate scenario set is a
companion to the VEMAP2 Historical Climate Dataset. The scenarios
are derived from coupled atmospheric-ocean global climate model
experiments with transient greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol
forcing. The deltas and ratios are interpolated to a 0.5 deg lat/lon
grid (without any topographic or other corrections) and then
added/multiplied to the historical VEMAP dataset.
The variables include minimum and maximum temperature,
precipitation, solar radiation (and irradiance), and vapor pressure
(and relative humidity) and have both monthly and daily versions. To
date, gridded scenario time series (1994-2100) are available for
runs from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)
and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK (which
ends at 2099). Additional sets will include runs from the NCAR
Climate System Model. Daily fields are generated from monthly fields
using a stochastic weather generator. Grid point daily data are not
spatially auto-correlated at the daily timestep (i.e. daily events
are not synchronous in adjacent grid cells), but are resolved on the
VEMAP 0.5 x 0.5 grid, a finer resolution than the GCM data. |
|
Function |
Model deltas and ratios have been superimposed on the
VEMAP2 historical dataset to provide spatially comprehensive
projections about temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and
vapor pressures for the contiguous United States. |
|
References and URLs |
[Kittel et al., 1995; Kittel et al., 1997; VEMAP members, 1995]
VEMAP home page:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/
VEMAP2 dataset overview:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/V2.html
VEMAP2 scenarios description:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/vemap/ve298.html#transSect |
|
Images |
VEMAP maps
VEMAP trend maps
VEMAP absolute temperatures
VEMAP time series
HCN-based time series
VEMAP tables of Means & Variances |
|
Direct Link to Data |
VEMAP2
Data Access.
Regional Data Access |
* The baseline period is 1961-1990. Both
the model baseline and the observed baseline are a single value for each
month averaged over the baseline period from the model and observed data,
respectively. Scenarios minimum and maximum temperatures are
calculated from deltas, st. (monthly model future temperature - monthly
model baseline temperature) + observational baseline temperature .
Scenario precipitation is calculated from ratios, st. (monthly model
future precipitation/monthly model baseline precipitation) x observational
baseline precipitation. This method of supplying continuous time
series from the historical period through the scenario period preserves
the relative GCM variance (or exact in the case of deltas) for future
years, while shifting the mean values for the future. The variance
for the historical period of the model simulations is not currently
supplied but may be in the future.
Table
2b: Canadian Climate Centre (CGCM1)
|
Description |
The CCC CGCM1
transient scenario is derived from a coupled atmosphere-ocean
general circulation model with transient greenhouse and sulfate
aerosol forcing (1%/yr increase in equivalent CO2 w/ is92a sulfate
aerosols). The CGCM1 time period is from 1850-2100. The model runs
include experiments forced with emission scenarios of 1% equivalent
CO2 increase per year without sulfate aerosols, as well as a control
experiment with present concentration of greenhouse gases. |
|
Function |
Direct GCM output of many atmospheric fields and
spatially synchronous daily data using the 1992 'business as usual'
scenario. |
|
References and URLs |
[Boer et al., 1984,1999a,b; Flato et al, 1999; McFarlane et al., 1992] |
|
Images |
Soil Moisture
Snow Cover
Sea Ice Cover
Precipitation Extremes
Alaska |
|
Direct Link to Data |
CGCM1
data
Sea Level Data
Storm Track Data
ENSO
Indices and ENSO caveats
Other Climate Indices |
Table
2c: UKMO/Hadley (HADCM2)
|
Description |
The UKMO Hadley Centre HADCM2
transient scenario is derived from a coupled atmosphere-ocean
general circulation model with transient greenhouse and sulfate
aerosol forcing (1%/yr.increase in equivalent CO2 w/ is92a sulfate
aerosols). The HADCM2 time period is from 1860-2099. The UK runs are
actually ensemble runs with 4 members, and only the separate
year-month data from each are in the database, but no variability
statistics are available. The cases are: a. GH gas 1% (4 runs); b.
GH gas 1% and aerosols (4 runs); c. GH gas is92d (which approximates
0.5%) (4 runs); d. GH gas is92d and aerosols (4 runs); e. Control
run (1 run). |
|
Function |
Direct GCM output of many atmospheric fields and
spatially synchronous daily data using the 1992 'business as usual'
scenario. |
|
References and URLs |
[see Johns et al., 1997; Mitchell et al., 1995; Mitchell and Johns, 1997]
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link/ |
|
Images |
Soil Moisture
Snow Cover
Sea Ice Cover
Precipitation Extremes
Alaska |
|
Direct Link to Data |
IPCC Data
Distribution Centre
Sea Level Data
Storm Track Data
ENSO
Indices and ENSO caveats
Other Climate Indices |
Table
2d: MPI/DKRZ
|
Description |
The MPI/DKRZ ECHAM4/OPYC3 transient scenario is derived from a coupled
atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with transient greenhouse
and sulfate aerosol forcing (is92a equivalent CO2 and sulfate
aerosols). |
|
Function |
Direct GCM output of many atmospheric fields and
spatially synchronous daily data using the 1992 'business as usual'
scenario. |
|
References and URLs |
IPCC Data
Distribution Centre |
|
Direct Link to Data |
IPCC Data
Distribution Centre |
Table
2e: NCAR CSM
|
Description |
Runs include (1) Business as Usual scenario, and (2)
stabilization at 550 ppm with CSM. |
|
Function |
Most recent 'business as usual' and stabilization
scenarios, including the direct effect of multiple greenhouse gases,
a real sulfate emissions model, and a coupled atmosphere-ocean model
that is not flux-corrected. |
|
References and URLs |
Journal of Climate, June 1998 (CSM Special Issue) |
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Images |
CSM Maps |
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Direct Link to Data |
NCAR Data |
Table
2f: DOE PCM
|
Description |
Runs include (1) IS92a Business as Usual scenario,
and (2) stabilization at 550 ppm with PCM. |
|
Function |
is92a 'business as usual' and stabilization
scenarios, including the direct effect of multiple greenhouse gases
and a coupled atmosphere-ocean model that is not flux-corrected. |
|
References and URLs |
DOE PCM |
|
Direct Link to Data |
DOE PCM Data |
Table
2g: GFDL Runs
|
Description |
The GFDL
R30 (3.75ox2.25o) transient scenario is
derived from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model
with transient greenhouse and sulfate aerosol forcing (1%/yr.increase
in equivalent CO2 w/ is92a sulfate aerosols). |
|
Function |
Direct GCM output of some atmospheric fields using
the 1992 'business as usual' scenario. However, model does not
include a diunal cycle. |
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References and URLs |
|
|
Direct Link to Data |
None |
Table
2h: Model Intercomparison
|
Description |
Will combine and statistically analyze data from
Canada (CCC), UK (UKMO/Hadley), Hamburg (Max-Planck), and NCAR. Will
gather year-month data; prepare decade-month data; provide selected
information about daily variability; prepare some decade data to
show model response. NCAR will aim to prepare a CD-ROM. |
|
Function |
To provide contextual comparisons between the
different GCMs and climate scenarios used in the National
Assessment. |
|
References and URLs |
|
|
Images |
Intercomparisons |
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Direct Link to Data |
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Table
2i: Model Validation
|
Description |
A comparison of simulations of current climate from
two coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models against
observations and evaluation of their future climates. |
|
Function |
To provide model validation of CGCM1 and HADCM2 over
the U.S., by comparisons with both VEMAP and the Legates and Wilmott
data set. |
|
References and URLs |
VEMAP comparisons were prepared by B. Felzer.
Doherty, R. and L. O. Mearns, 1999, A comparison of simulations of
current climate from two coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate
models against observations and evaluation of their future climates,
Report to the National Institute for Global Environmental Change (NIGEC)
in support of the US National Assessment. |
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Direct Link to Data |
Model Biases
Doherty and Mearns
report |
Table
2j: Synthesis Document Figures
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